2013 NBA Finals Prediction

I regret that I didn’t write a blog post prior to Game 7 of the Heat-Pacers series because I forecasted that the Heat would win a blowout. Most people would say that it is easy to say in hindsight since that is what is actually happened, so I’m going to try to beat them to the punch with my NBA Finals prediction, which may end up being horribly wrong, but at least I can back up the reasons behind why I think it will be right. The reason that I was so convinced that the Heat would close things out in the Eastern Conference Finals was based off NBA history. If the Pacers would have beaten the Heat, it would have been an impressive victory that bucked all trends that have been established by the NBA, a league whose playoffs have become usually easy to forecast its results. Superstars win championships especially the best superstar in the game. It’s the simple reason why the Heat will win the title.

It’s strange to me how easy the media is quick to turn on the Heat. It’s likely because they are the villains and most people want to see David beat Goliath. But, simple statistics and history would have shown the media that the Heat were going to win the Eastern Conference Finals. How could an experienced team with at least two future Hall of Famers on it lose to a balanced talented team with no Conference Finals Game 7 experience? Not to mention that the Heat have the best player in the world at the peak of his career.

That’s where we get to LeBron James. He’s having the best season of his career by far and the most deserving of his 4 Most Valuable Player seasons. He has the added confidence of one championship under his belt. It’s ridiculous to bet against him. How easy is it for people to forget that the Heat had a 27-game winning streak? This team isn’t a bunch of chumps. On any given day, they could lose to a talented team as they did with the Pacers. But, in a 7-game series, they have the will and experience to win it all.

In looking at the NBA Finals, the San Antonio Spurs have had a great run. I love that team. I love their organization. I love how their main core of players have stood the test of time and dominated younger teams that people would expect they would lose to. But, that’s what makes it even more perplexing for people to believe so confidently that they will defeat the Heat. It would be a different story if 2013 LeBron James were facing off against 2003 Tim Duncan. What an amazing showdown that would be that would dictate how the histories of these two players would be determined. But, that situation is left for a video game or an annoying debate between Skip Bayless and Stephen A. Smith. This is a matchup between LeBron James at the peak of his career and an aging but still amazingly effective Tim Duncan.

Here’s the main point: if LeBron James wants to be thought of as one of the greatest players of all-time, he can’t lose this series. If his name can even come close to that of Michael Jordan’s, he can’t lose this series.

Once Jordan reached his peak, he never looked back. There was never a hiccup other than his retirement. He beat an older Magic Johnson to pass the torch, his supposed equal Clyde Drexler in an embarrassing manner, Charles Barkley, a skinny Shawn Kemp and Gary Payton, and John Stockton and Karl Malone. Some of the greatest players in NBA history could never touch a ring in the 1990s because of Jordan.

That’s the same situation LeBron is in. If he wants to be considered the best, how could he possibly lose to an elder Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili? The supporting cast doesn’t matter. For your Joel Anthony, you have Jordan’s Bill Wennington. For your Shane Battier, you have Jordan’s Jud Buechler. A superstar wills his team to victory and gets his role players to do their roles. As much Dwyane Wade may be injured, he still will put it into gear and blow out his knee if he has to in order to get the production that he needs. That may mean laying an egg in a Game 6 and having his leader LeBron subtly call him out in order to help dominate a Game 7.

If LeBron enters the pantheon belonging to the greats, he wins this series. Just as I said after the 2007 NBA playoffs that LeBron was just too good to not win a title do I say now that he’s too good to not win a second under these circumstances. He’s a superstar that’s simply amazing. He has the confidence to find the way to win just like Jordan did. If he doesn’t, then it would be a surprise to me, and it puts LeBron back in the same conversations we had about him before he won a title last year. Can you imagine the current LeBron James putting up an 8-point stinker performance like he did in Game 5 of the 2011 Finals? Not likely.

 Once again, LeBron James's legacy is on the line.

The 2-3-2 format of the NBA Finals is something that I've always found obnoxious. It doesn't make sense that the format of the 7-game series suddenly changes and it's a shift that dramatically does not benefit the team not possessing home field advantage. It's very difficult to win 3 straight games at home against the same team let alone the best team from the opposing conference. Since 2000, only 3 teams have managed to win all three games in that position (2004 Detroit Pistons, 2006 Miami Heat, 2012 Miami Heat – all three teams won the title). Only the 2006 Miami Heat managed to come from 2-0 down to win the title. So, odds say the Spurs have to split the first two games to have the leverage and momentum to even do the difficult task of winning three straight games. It's even rarer that teams in such circumstances find themselves up 3-2 heading into Game 6 on the road (only the 2010 Celtics did that and then lost the final two to the Lakers). It makes the idea of winning three straight games against such a talented team as the Heat unlikely.

It's not out of the realm of possibility that the Spurs can win this series. Never say never. But, for anyone to have such conviction that the Spurs will win is surprising. The Heat have proven to be the favorite all year long. Any time that the media or fans have second guessed them, they've come out and played stronger and answered. It only makes sense that LeBron and the Heat shine because that's what happens in the NBA with superstars at their peak on teams that are so good.

My prediction: The Heat in 6.