I regret that I didn’t write a blog
post prior to Game 7 of the Heat-Pacers series because I forecasted
that the Heat would win a blowout. Most people would say that it is
easy to say in hindsight since that is what is actually happened, so
I’m going to try to beat them to the punch with my NBA Finals
prediction, which may end up being horribly wrong, but at least I can
back up the reasons behind why I think it will be right. The reason
that I was so convinced that the Heat would close things out in the
Eastern Conference Finals was based off NBA history. If the Pacers
would have beaten the Heat, it would have been an impressive victory
that bucked all trends that have been established by the NBA, a
league whose playoffs have become usually easy to forecast its
results. Superstars win championships especially the best superstar
in the game. It’s the simple reason why the Heat will win the
title.
It’s strange to me how easy the media
is quick to turn on the Heat. It’s likely because they are the
villains and most people want to see David beat Goliath. But, simple
statistics and history would have shown the media that the Heat were
going to win the Eastern Conference Finals. How could an experienced
team with at least two future Hall of Famers on it lose to a balanced
talented team with no Conference Finals Game 7 experience? Not to
mention that the Heat have the best player in the world at the peak
of his career.
That’s where we get to LeBron James.
He’s having the best season of his career by far and the most
deserving of his 4 Most Valuable Player seasons. He has the added
confidence of one championship under his belt. It’s ridiculous to
bet against him. How easy is it for people to forget that the Heat
had a 27-game winning streak? This team isn’t a bunch of chumps. On
any given day, they could lose to a talented team as they did with
the Pacers. But, in a 7-game series, they have the will and
experience to win it all.
In looking at the NBA Finals, the San
Antonio Spurs have had a great run. I love that team. I love their
organization. I love how their main core of players have stood the
test of time and dominated younger teams that people would expect
they would lose to. But, that’s what makes it even more perplexing
for people to believe so confidently that they will defeat the Heat.
It would be a different story if 2013 LeBron James were facing off
against 2003 Tim Duncan. What an amazing showdown that would be that
would dictate how the histories of these two players would be
determined. But, that situation is left for a video game or an
annoying debate between Skip Bayless and Stephen A. Smith. This is a
matchup between LeBron James at the peak of his career and an aging
but still amazingly effective Tim Duncan.
Here’s the main point: if LeBron
James wants to be thought of as one of the greatest players of
all-time, he can’t lose this series. If his name can even come
close to that of Michael Jordan’s, he can’t lose this series.
Once Jordan reached his peak, he never
looked back. There was never a hiccup other than his retirement. He
beat an older Magic Johnson to pass the torch, his supposed equal
Clyde Drexler in an embarrassing manner, Charles Barkley, a skinny
Shawn Kemp and Gary Payton, and John Stockton and Karl Malone. Some
of the greatest players in NBA history could never touch a ring in
the 1990s because of Jordan.
That’s the same situation LeBron is
in. If he wants to be considered the best, how could he possibly lose
to an elder Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili? The
supporting cast doesn’t matter. For your Joel Anthony, you have
Jordan’s Bill Wennington. For your Shane Battier, you have Jordan’s
Jud Buechler. A superstar wills his team to victory and gets his role
players to do their roles. As much Dwyane Wade may be injured, he
still will put it into gear and blow out his knee if he has to in
order to get the production that he needs. That may mean laying an
egg in a Game 6 and having his leader LeBron subtly call him out in
order to help dominate a Game 7.
If LeBron enters the pantheon belonging
to the greats, he wins this series. Just as I said after the 2007 NBA
playoffs that LeBron was just too good to not win a title do I say
now that he’s too good to not win a second under these
circumstances. He’s a superstar that’s simply amazing. He has the
confidence to find the way to win just like Jordan did. If he
doesn’t, then it would be a surprise to me, and it puts LeBron back
in the same conversations we had about him before he won a title last
year. Can you imagine the current LeBron James putting up an 8-point
stinker performance like he did in Game 5 of the 2011 Finals? Not
likely.
Once again, LeBron James's legacy is on the line.
The 2-3-2 format of the NBA Finals is
something that I've always found obnoxious. It doesn't make sense
that the format of the 7-game series suddenly changes and it's a
shift that dramatically does not benefit the team not possessing home
field advantage. It's very difficult to win 3 straight games at home
against the same team let alone the best team from the opposing
conference. Since 2000, only 3 teams have managed to win all three
games in that position (2004 Detroit Pistons, 2006 Miami Heat, 2012
Miami Heat – all three teams won the title). Only the 2006 Miami
Heat managed to come from 2-0 down to win the title. So, odds say the
Spurs have to split the first two games to have the leverage and
momentum to even do the difficult task of winning three straight
games. It's even rarer that teams in such circumstances find
themselves up 3-2 heading into Game 6 on the road (only the 2010
Celtics did that and then lost the final two to the Lakers). It makes
the idea of winning three straight games against such a talented team
as the Heat unlikely.
It's not out of the realm of
possibility that the Spurs can win this series. Never say never. But,
for anyone to have such conviction that the Spurs will win is
surprising. The Heat have proven to be the favorite all year long.
Any time that the media or fans have second guessed them, they've
come out and played stronger and answered. It only makes sense that
LeBron and the Heat shine because that's what happens in the NBA with
superstars at their peak on teams that are so good.
My prediction: The Heat in 6.
