Monday, February 25, 2013

Dwight Howard Stays: The Only Logical Choice for the Lakers

Now that the dust has settled, we can sit back from Thursday’s NBA trade deadline and see that it was all a lot of hooey for nothing. In the lead-up to the deadline, there was a lot of talk about Dwight Howard. Most television pundits stated emphatically that the Los Angeles Lakers should trade Howard. In an also emphatic (if not slightly over-the-top) comment the day before the deadline, general manager Mitch Kupchak said that wasn’t going to happen and that Howard was going to be a Laker for a long time. Initially, I agreed with most pundits. But as the deadline loomed, it was apparent to me that the logical choice for the Lakers was for Howard to remain on the team.

At first glance, the logical choice appeared to be to trade Dwight Howard. The Lakers are on the outside looking in when it comes to the Western Conference playoff picture. Reports say Kobe Bryant and Howard are not getting along both on and off the court. Howard is going to be a free agent at the end of the year and has shown no commitment to staying with the Lakers beyond this season, and given how this season has transpired, it would be highly unlikely he would want to stay. All signs point to getting the best trade possible for Dwight Howard.

But, haven’t we been through this already? Didn’t the Orlando Magic just go through this type of dragged out fiasco months ago? I’ll get to the Magic’s role in this situation later, but first, it’s time to focus in on the Lakers.

Kupchak is one of the best general managers in the league. He has continued to make the Lakers a success and a destination for free agents. When he made the trade for Howard in the offseason, he knew the ramifications of such a decision.

Kupchak put his money in on Dwight Howard. When the trade happened, no one thought it was a bad move, and automatically the Lakers had the scariest starting lineup in the league. Little did we know that the Lakers' season would turn out this way and that they would play like they were “old as shit” (Kobe's hilarious words, not mine). Now, Kupchak is pot committed, to put it in poker terms. He is riding the future of the Lakers on Dwight Howard.

When pundits stated that the Lakers should trade Howard, I initially agreed with them. It's likely Howard would leave and with the wishy-washy nature he showed in Orlando, why deal with that? The Lakers shouldn't stake their future on Howard, and should instead get pieces to assist Kobe and the future.

It seems like a great idea, but I realized that I was looking at it from the perspective of a Cleveland fan. That's what a Cleveland team would do. That's what most teams would do. That's not what the Los Angeles Lakers would or should do. The Lakers are one of the few teams in the league that players want to come to. They've built a culture of winning and have highlighted the appeal of the West Coast since “Showtime” hit the Great Western Forum. Why would the Lakers become sellers of all a sudden? Why would they play for the future when their offseason buyer move of Howard was playing for now?

 Kobe has no choice but to deal with Dwight.

Even if a trade were to happen, what possible value could the Lakers have gotten for Howard? That's where the anger occurs in trade demand situations like with Howard, Chris Paul, or Carmelo Anthony. The small-market team loses out on a superstar in order to get a bunch of pieces that can never live up to the importance of that superstar. And, as we've seen, the NBA is dictated by superstars. Since 2000, the only team that didn't at least have a clear superstar player on their roster and won a championship was the 2003-04 Detroit Pistons. But, having a balanced team like that is a rarity over the norm. Even so, one superstar can't even lead a team to the title on his own. Jordan had Pippen. Kobe had Shaq (or vice versa). LeBron has Wade and Bosh. Let's not stop to mention all the role players that make a championship team a true winner as well.

There was nothing to say that Los Angeles would have gotten equal value for Howard. Rumors (from wherever it's not even clear in these days of social media) had a possible Howard-for-Rajon Rondo swap. This was the best deal possible, but didn't seem likely to happen, and officially would have thrown in the towel for the Lakers this year given Rondo's season-ending injury.


Let's look at the Magic players' current season stats:

Aaron Afflalo: 16.8 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 3.1 APG
Nikola Vucevic: 12.3 PPG, 11.4 RPG, 1.07 blocks per game
Moe Harkless: 5.8 PPG, 4.1 RPG
Josh McRoberts: 3.9 PPG, 3.3 RPG
Al Harrington: Staph infection
Christian Eyenga: Waived in October

The Magic received a number of draft picks from the Knicks, Nuggets, and Lakers, all presumed playoff teams, so the selections are likely to be tougher in producing an impact or star player. While Afflalo and Vucevic are fine players, they are pieces on a championship team, not superstars (the notion in Bleacher Report that Vucevic “really makes one think if the Lakers truly got the best center in the long-term” is perhaps its silliest).

Now, factor that in with the idea that any team taking Howard knows that they may possibly have him for only half a season and the negativity and criticism that has followed the All-Star big man, and it seems ridiculous that the Lakers should even possibly take a deal like this one.
 
The Lakers were better off to do what they did, and stick with Dwight Howard. They now have the time to see if their superstars can make a run in the second half of the season to get them into the playoffs. Likewise, Kupchak has already begun to work his magic in showing his wholehearted support for Howard.

Whether Kupchak's comments work on Howard or not remains to be seen (as does the possibility of a statue outside Staples Center). But, one thing is clear: the Lakers are still the Lakers because they kept Dwight Howard.

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